Thursday, March 19, 2020

The Beginnings of COVID-19 - The Novel Coronavirus - A World Health Organization Timeline

The coronavirus has been in existence almost as long as humans, if not before. There are many different types of the coronavirus - one causes the common cold, one has been designated as SARS and one as MERS.  This new strain is now being called COVID-19.

   Before I go on, let me back up a bit and talk about our Center for Disease Control Pandemic Team.  After 45 was elected, during the Transition co-working time, the incoming team worked with President Obama's out-going team practicing several scenarios (as each Transition team has done for the past century).  One of the scenarios that was acted upon was a pandemic caused by a flu-like virus that originated in Asia and swept across Europe.  The CDC and WHO specialists covered all available actions that the US government could perform, use, or draw upon.  Thirty members of 45's incoming team participated in this exercise.  Less than ten of those people remain in the current administration, according to one of the men who participated. And they apparently don't remember anything they learned in that exercise.
   In May 2018, the top White House official in charge of the US response to pandemics left the current administration.  Rear Admiral Timothy Ziemer was the senior director of global health and bio-defense on the National Security Council and oversaw global health security issues, a specialty that had been bolstered under President Obama.
  After Ziemer's departure, the global health team was reorganized as part of an effort by then National Security Adviser John Bolton.  Meanwhile, Tom Bossert, a homeland security adviser who recommended strong defenses against disease and biological warfare, was reportedly pushed out of the administration by Bolton in 2018.  Neither White House official, nor their teams, which were responsible for coordinating the US to pandemics across governmental agencies, have been replaced.
   In November 2019, a bipartisan group of lawmakers and experts formally recommended that health security leadership on the NSC should be restored.  And on 18 February 2020, a group of 27 Senators sent a letter to current National Security Adviser Robert O'Brien to ask him to appoint a new global health security expert to the NSC.
   "The fact that they explicitly dismantled the office in the White House that was tasked with preparing for exactly this kind of a risk is hugely concerning," said Jeremy Konyndyk, who ran foreign disaster assistance during the Obama administration. "Both the structure and all the institutional memory are now gone."
   As of this morning, 19 March 2020, the United States does not have a CDC Pandemic Response Team in place.



I'm going to be referencing the World Health Organization a lot after this; so if you are not aware of WHO, what they are and what they do, read this.  WHO is a specialized agency of the United Nations which is responsible for international public health.  It is a part of the UN Sustainable Development Group.  The WHO Constitution, which establishes the agency's governing structure and principles, states it's main objective as ensuring "the attainment by all peoples of the highest level  of health." It is headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland; and has six semi-autonomous regional offices and 150 field offices worldwide.
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   On 31 December 2019, a case of pneumonia with an unknown cause was reported to the World Health Organization in China.  From the WHO report: "At the close of 2019, the WHO China Country Office was informed of a pneumonia of unknown cause, detected in the city of Wuhan, in Hubei province, China.  According to the authorities, some patients were operating dealers or vendors in the Huanan Seafood market."  Staying in close contact with national authorities, WHO began monitoring the situation and requested further information on the laboratory tests performed and the different diagnoses considered.

   4 January 2020 -  WHO announced a cluster of pneumonia cases - with no deaths - in Wuhan, China.  They said they were actively investigating the cause.  WHO announced it would work across all three of its levels - country office, regional office, and Headquarters - to track the situation and share details as they emerged.

   5 January 2020 -  WHO published its risk assessment and advice, and reported on the status of patients and the public health response by national authorities to the cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan, China.

   10 January 2020 -  WHO issues its first guidance regarding the novel coronavirus.  Developed with reference to other coronaviruses, such as SARS and MERS, WHO issued a tool for countries to check their ability to detect and respond to this novel coronavirus.  This information was/is to help with identifying main gaps, assessing risks and planning for additional investigations, response, and control actions.

   12 January 2020 -  China shares the genetic sequence of the novel coronavirus, which will be very important for other countries as they develop specific diagnostic kits and testing.

   13 January 2020 -  Officials confirmed a case of the novel coronavirus in Thailand.  It was not unexpected that cases of the novel coronavirus would emerge outside of China and reinforces why WHO calls for active monitoring and preparedness in other countries.

   21 January 2020 -  WHO made a field trip to Wuhan, China.  The delegation observed and discussed active surveillance processes, temperature screening at Wuhan Tianhe airport, laboratory facilities, infection prevention and control measures at Zhongnan hospital and its associated fever clinics, and the deployment of a test kit to detect the virus.  The delegation also discussed public communication efforts and China's plan to expand the case definition for the novel coronavirus, which will build a clearer picture of the spectrum of severity of the virus.
   At the end of the visit, the Chinese Government released the primers and probes used in the test kit for the novel coronavirus to help other countries detect it.  Chinese experts also shared a range of protocols that will be used in developing international guidelines, including case definitions, clinical management protocols, and infection control.

   22 & 23 January 2020 -  The WHO Director General convened the Emergency Committee to consider the outbreak of the novel coronavirus in China, with cases also now reported in the Republic of Korea, Japan, Thailand, and Singapore.
   Several Committee members considered it still too early to declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC), given its restrictive and binary nature.  Among other recommendations, the Committee advised that it be recalled in approximately 10 days to again view the spread of the outbreak, if any.

   25 January 2020 -  WHO launches a free introductory "course" about the novel coronavirus on-line. Available in English, French, Spanish, and Chinese, this introduction covers topics such as why the novel coronavirus is a global threat to human health, and how to effectively engage communities in response to it.

   28 January 2020 -  WHO Director General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus met with China's President Xi Jinping in Beijing, China about the coronavirus outbreak.  Dr. Tedros was joined by WHO Regional Director Dr. Takeshi Kasai and Executive Director of the WHO Emergencies Program Dr. Mike Ryan, and also met State Councilor and Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi and Minister of Health Ma Xiaowei.
   The discussions focused on continued collaboration on containment measures in Wuhan, public health measures in other cities and provinces, conducting further studies on the severity and transmissibilty of the virus, continuing to share data, and for China to share biological material with WHO.  These measures will advance the development of medical countermeasures such as vaccines and treatments.
   The two sides agreed that WHO would send international experts to visit China as soon as possible to work with Chinese counterparts on increasing understanding of the outbreak to guide global response efforts.

   30 January 2020 -  A Public Health Emergency of International Concern was declared by WHO Director General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus following a second meeting of the Emergency Committee convened under the International Health Regulations.  Acknowledging that 2019-nCoV cases have been reported in five WHO regions in month, the Committee noted that early detection, isolating and treating cases, contact tracing, and social distancing measures - in line with the level of risk - can all work to interrupt virus spread.

   5 February 2020 -  With the 2019-nCoV outbreak set to test the resilience of countries around the world, WHO invokes the $675 million (United States $) Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan, that aims to protect states with weaker health systems.
   Covering areas ranging from international coordination to country readiness to research and innovation, the SPRP aims to limit transmission, provide early care, communicate key information, and minimize social and economic impacts.

   11 February 2020 -  The novel coronavirus is named COVID-19.  Guidelines mandated that the name of the disease could not refer to a geographical location, an animal, an individual, or group of people.  It also needed to relate to the disease and be pronounceable.  This choice will help guard against the use of  other names that might be inaccurate or stigmatizing.  This is how the name came about: COronaVirus Infectious Disease; and since it was first reported in 2019, the -19.

   12 February 2020 -  More than 400 experts and funding partners met at WHO's Geneva Headquarters to accelerate research to stop the COVID-19 outbreak.  Featuring updates from the front lines of the response in China, the meeting addressed issues such as: developing easy-to-apply diagnostics, accelerating existing vaccine candidates and preventing infection.
   Also on this day, WHO activated the Crisis Management Team (CMT), which brings together WHO, OCHA, IMO, UNICEF, ICAO, WFP, FAO, the World Bank, and several UN Secretariat departments.  The CMT will be managed by the Executive Director of WHO Health Emergencies Program, Dr. Mike Ryan.  It will help WHO focus on the health response while the other agencies will bring their expertise to bear on the wider social, economic, and developmental implications of the outbreak.

   15 February 2020 -  "We must be guided by solidarity, not stigma.  The greatest enemy we face is not the virus itself, it's the stigma that turns us against each other.  We must stop stigma and hate."  WHO Director General Dr. Tedros called on the international community to use the window of opportunity to prepare for COVID-19 at the Munich Security Conference, a leading global forum on preeminent crises and future security challenges.

   17 February 2020 -  Based on lessons from the H1N1 flu and Ebola, WHO has outlined planning considerations for organizers of mass gatherings, in light of the COVID-19 outbreak.  It has also issued advice on how to detect and take care of ill travelers, who are suspected COVID-19 cases.

   18 February 2020 -  WHO and other countries are engaged in acts of outbreak preparedness.  WHO has shipped supplies of personal protective equipment to 21 countries.  By the end of this week, 40 countries in Africa and 29 in the Americas are due to have the ability to detect COVID-19.

   21 February 2020 -  WHO Director General Dr. Tedros emphasized that the window of opportunity to contain the COVID-19 outbreak is "narrowing" and that the international community needs to act quickly, including through financing.   His Tweet: "Countries with weaker health systems nedd the world's focus & support now, due to the potential for #COVID19 to spread to those locations.  We must take advantage of the window of opportunity we have to contain the outbreak.  We don't want to look back later & regret failing to act."
   Also on this day, Dr. Tedros appointed six special envoys on COVID-19, to provide strategic advice and high-level political advocacy and engagement in different parts of the world.  They are:
 Professor Dr. Maha El Rabbat, former Minister of Health of Egypt
 Dr. Davis Nabarro, former special adviser to the United Nations Secretary-General on the 2030  Agenda for Sustainable Development and Climate Change
 Dr. John Nkengasong, Director for the African Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
 Dr. Mirta Roses, former Director of the WHO Region of the Americas
 Dr. Shin Young-soo, former Regional Director of the WHO Region of the Western Pacific
 Professor Samba Sow, Director-General of the Center for Vaccine Development in Mali

   22 February 2020 -  WHO's Director General and the Regional Director for Africa addressed an emergency meeting of ministers of health to agree on a continental strategy for Africa to strengthen preparedness and responses to the COVID-19 outbreak.  During the past month about 11,000 African health workers have been trained using WHO's on-line courses regarding COVID-19.

   24 February 2020 -  UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres met with the WHO Director General and other WHO leaders, receiving a briefing on COVID-19, Ebola, and polio.  He expressed great admiration for health workers, including in China, who are working tirelessly to save lives.  The UN Secretary-General also stressed that there is no space for stigma and discrimination and said  we must be guided by science and human rights-based interventions.
   A team of experts from WHO and the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) will focus on:  understanding how events developed, learning from the Italian experience, and supporting control and prevention efforts by the authorities.
   To limit further human transmission, WHO experts will provide support in the areas of clinical management, infection prevention and control, surveillance, and risk communication.

   25 February 2020 -  A WHO team of 25 international and Chinese experts traveled to several different provinces in China, with a small group going to Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak.  Among the team's findings was that the epidemic peaked and plateaued between the 23rd of January and the 2nd of February, and has been steadily declining since then.  The team also estimates that the measures taken in China have averted a significant number of cases.  In a press conference in Geneva, Dr. Bruce Aylward, the mission's lead, reported back on what China has done, its impact, and implications.
   The WHO Director General has repeatedly called for "solidarity, not stigma" to address COVID-19.  WHO has worked with UNICEF and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies on a guide to preventing and addressing the social stigma associated with the disease.  It's vital to fight stigma because it can drive people to hide the illness, not seek health care immediately, and discourage them from adopting healthy behaviors.  This guide includes some tips and messages, as well as do's and don't's on language when talking about COVID-19.

   26 February 2020 -  WHO has issued new COVID_19 guidance for businesses and employers, which outlines simple ways to prevent the spread of the virus, things to consider when employees travel, and how to get your business ready in case COVID-19 arrives in your community.
   There is also a new video - Watch Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO's technical leader on the new coronavirus, answer questions from the public about COVID-19.  She begins by explaining how the virus spreads and how to protect yourself from it.  Dr. Van Kerkhove was a member of the recent joint mission of experts to China to learn more about the outbreak.

   27 February 2020 -  In discussing preparedness for COVID-19, the WHO Director General listed questions every health minister (or the head of Health & Human Services in the US) should be able to answer.  The questions are:
  1.  Are we ready for the first case?
  2.  Do we have enough medical oxygen, ventilators and other vital equipment?
  3.  How will we know if there are cases in other areas of the country?
  4.  Do our health workers have the training and equipment they need to stay safe?
  5.  Do we have the right measures at airports and border crossings to test people who are sick?
  6.  Do our labs have the right chemicals that allow them to test samples?
  7.  Are we ready to treat patients with severe or critical disease?
  8.  Do our hospitals and clinics have the right procedures to prevent and control infections?
  9.  Do our people have the right information?  Do they know what the disease looks like?

   28 February 2020 -  In a daily COVID-19 press briefing the WHO Director General said that more than 20 vaccines are in development globally, and several therapeutics are in clinical trials.  But we don't need to wit for vaccines and therapeutics.  There are things that every individual can do to protect themselves and others.  Wash your hands.  Don't touch others. Use social distancing.  Do not congregate in large numbers.

   1 March 2020 -  United Nations Humanitarian Chief Mark Lowcock released $15 million (US $) from the Central Emergency Response Fund to WHO and UNICEF to help fund global efforts to contain the COVID-19 virus.  This grant will help countries with fragile health systems boost their detection and response operations.  It will fund essential activities including monitoring the spread of the virus, investigating cases, and the operation of national laboratories.

   2 March 2020 -  A WHO team visits Iran, landing in Tehran.  The experts aim to identify transmission dynamics and at-risk populations, as well as provide guidance on strengthening and scaling up the response and readiness efforts.  The mission arrived along with a shipment containing medical supplies and protective equipment to support over 15,000 health care workers and enough laboratory kits to test and diagnose nearly 100,000 people.  The mission will build on COVID-19 preparedness and response work already underway by WHO's country office in the Islamic Republic of Iran.
   Dr. Tedros, the Secretary General of WHO said, "There is no choice but to act now."  Speaking at the COVID-19 media briefing, Dr. Tedros emphasized that the virus is capable of community transmission, but can be contained with the right measures.  He Tweeted: "Containment of #COVID19 is feasible and must remain the top priority for all countries.  There is no one-size fits all approach.  @WHO is advising countries on actions they can take for each of the scenarios - first case, first cluster, first evidence of community transmission."

   3 March 2020 -  WHO has shipped nearly half a million sets of personal protective equipment to 47 countries, but the global supply is rapidly depleting.  Shortages are leaving doctors, nurses, and other front line workers dangerously ill-equipped to care for COVID-19 patients due to limited access to supplies such as gloves, medical masks, respirators, goggles, face shields, gowns and aprons.  To meet rising global demand, WHO estimates that the industry must increase manufacturing by 40 %.
  Each month, front line health responders around the world need - at the very least - these supplies to protect themselves and others from infectious diseases - including COVID-19:
  Face masks   -  89 million
  Gowns       -    30 million
  Goggles     -  1.59 million
  Pairs of gloves  -  76 million
  Hand sanitizer   -  2.9 million liters   (766,099 gallons)

   4 March 2020 -   "This is unprecedented," says Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO's technical leader for COVID-19.  She Tweeted: " We are eight weeks into this #COVID19 outbreak: yet we have identified the virus, we have the genetic sequence, PCR & serological assay in use.  This wealth of knowledge is unprecedented  for a new disease."

   5 March 2020 -  Speaking at the COVID-19 media briefing, the WHO Secretary General, Dr. Tedros, emphasized that the epidemic "can be pushed back, but only with a collective coordinated and comprehensive approach that engages the entire machinery of government."  In three Tweets, he said: "The #COVID19 epidemic is a threat for every country, rich & poor.  We are calling on every country to act with speed, scale & clear-minded determination.  We call on countries to activate their emergency plans through the whole-government approach.  -   We are concerned that in some countries the level of political commitment and the actions that demonstrate that commitment do not match the level of the threat we all face.  -  Leadership from the top:  We call on country leaders to mobilize their plans, coordinating every part of government, not just the health ministry - security, diplomacy, finance, commerce, transport, trade, information and more - the whole government should be involved."
   Also today, WHO launches a new social media campaign called Be Ready for COVID-19, which urges people to be safe, smart, and kind.  "Be Ready" was launched because everyone can prepare for COVID-19, including individuals, governments, and businesses.
  We're calling on people to Be Safe by remembering tried & tested public health measures, like regular hand washing & staying at least 3 feet away from anyone coughing or sneezing.  These ordinary measures are extraordinarily effective at fighting COVID-19.
  We're asking people to Be Smart about COVID-19 by rejecting rumors & taking care to only share information from trusted sources.  Everyone should keep informed about what is happening in their area and follow the recommendations of local authorities.
  We're reminding people toBe Kind through addressing stigma and looking out for one another -especially the most vulnerable and those in isolation.  Compassion can combat COVID-19.

   6 March 2020 -  "Research  -  implemented as policy and practice  -  can save lives and needs to be integrated into the response from the start."   A Research & Development road map for COVID-19 outlines research priorities in 9 key areas.  These include the natural history of the virus, epidemiology, diagnostics, clinical management, ethical considerations, and social sciences, as well as longer-term goals for therapeutics and vaccines.

   7 March 2020 -  Tweet from Dr. Tedros, WHO Secretary General:  "Today for the first time 100 countries are reporting #COVID19 cases.  This comes after the world reached 100,000 cases yesterday.  While very serious, this should not discourage us.  There are many things everyone, everywhere, can and should do now.   #coronavirusbit.ly/3azVPDK  "
   Marking this somber moment, WHO reminded all countries and communities that the spread of this virus can be significantly slowed or even reversed through the implementation of robust containment and control activities.
   Every effort to contain the virus and slow the spread saves lives. These efforts give health systems and all of society much needed time to prepare, and researchers more time to identify effective treatments and develop vaccines.
   Allowing uncontrolled spread should not be a choice of any government, as it will harm not only the citizens of that country, but affect other countries as well.
   We must stop, contain, control, delay and reduce the impact of this virus at every opportunity.  Every person has the capacity to contribute, to protect themselves, to protect others, whether in the home, the community, the healthcare system, the workplace, or the transport system.

   8 March 2020 -  Every country should urgently take all necessary measures to slow further spread and to protect health systems from becoming overwhelmed with patients seriously ill with COVID-19.
   Interim Guidance is issued from WHO:  Drawing on existing materials, this guidance describes the preparedness, readiness, and response actions for four different transmission scenarios:
 1.  No cases
 2.  Sporadic cases:  1 or more cases, imported or locally detected
 3.  Clusters of cases in time, geographic location and/or common exposure
 4.  Community transmission: larger outbreaks of local transmission

   9 March 2020 -  Tweet from Dr. Tedros of WHO:  "Now that the #coronavirus has a foothold in so many countries, the threat of a pandemic has become very real.  But it would be the first pandemic in history that could be controlled.  The bottom line is:  We are not at the mercy of this virus."
   Dr. Tedros also said the above in his daily media briefing.  All countries must aim to stop transmission and prevent the spread of COVID-19, whether they face no cases, sporadic cases, clusters, or community transmission.  "Let hope be an antidote to fear.  Let solidarity be the antidote to blame.  Let our shared humanity be the antidote to our shared threat."

   10 March 2020 -  WHO, UNICEF and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies outline critical considerations and practical check lists to keep schools safe, with helpful tips for parents and caregivers, as well as children and students.

   11 March 2020 -  Speaking at the daily COVID-19 media briefing, Dr. Tedros, of WHO, said:
"WHO has been assessing this outbreak around the clock and we are deeply concerned both by the alarming levels of spread and severity, and by the alarming levels of inaction.  We have, therefore, made the assessment that COVID-19 can be characterized as a pandemic.
   Pandemic is not a word to use lightly or carelessly.  It is a word that, if misused, can cause unreasonable fear, or unjustified acceptance that the fight is over, leading to unnecessary suffering and death.
   Describing the situation as a pandemic does not change WHO's assessment of the threat posed by this virus.  It doesn't change what WHO is doing, and it doesn't change what countries should do.
   We have never before seen a pandemic sparked by a coronavirus.  This is the first pandemic caused by a coronavirus.
   And we have never before seen a pandemic that can be controlled, at the same time."

   12 March 2020 -   Reports from 5-day missions to Azerbaijan and Iran were given.
  During it's 5-day mission to Azerbaijan, a team of WHO experts worked with the national response committee on developing a national preparedness and response plan for COVID-19.  The government of Azerbaijan is contributing to global efforts to address the virus, coordinating with neighboring countries, and has pledged $5 million (US $) to WHO's strategic preparedness and response plan.
  A 5-day expert mission to Iran with experts from WHO, GOARN partners, Robert Koch Institute in Berlin, and the Chinese Center for Disease Control has concluded.  "Everybody in the country is engaged in this response.  The right and timely public health measures implemented on an adequate scale will make a difference," said Dr. Richard Brennan, WHO Regional Emergency Director of the Eastern Mediterranean Region and mission team lead.  Looking forward, Dr. Brennan said more work needs to be done to protect health workers.  The mission also held constructive discussions on ways to advance epidemiological data collection and analysis.

   13 March 2020 -  A new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) Solidarity Response Fund will raise money from a wide range of donors to support the work of the World Health Organization and partners to help countries respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.  The fund, the first of its kind, enables private individuals, corporations, and institutions anywhere in the world to come together to directly contribute to global response efforts, and has been created by the United Nations Foundation and the Swiss Philanthropy Foundation, together with WHO.
  *Europe now has more reported cases and deaths than the rest of the world combined, apart from China.
    More cases are now being reported every day than were reported in China at the height of its epidemic. *
  WHO launched a #SafeHands Challenge to promote the power of clean hands to fight the coronavirus.  To support the challenge to encourage people to clean their hands with soap or an alcohol-based hand rub, Twitter created a new hand-washing emoji.  Heads of state, footballers, singers, and more have already taken part, with more people nominated to join the challenge every day.

   15 March 2020 -  A WHO mission in Iraq, which comprised of experts from the Eastern Mediterranean Regional Office and from WHO headquarters in Geneva, held a series of meetings with national health authorities to identify the disease detection dynamics and at-risk populations, in addition to providing guidance on strengthening response and control measures.
   The mission also reviewed the Ministry's overall readiness to deal with a potential increase in case reporting and the priority of establishing an Emergency Operation Center to speed up action now that the disease has been announced as a global pandemic.

   16 March 2020 -  "You cannot fight a fire blindfolded."   -   Countries should test every suspected case of COVID-19.  If people test positive, they should be isolated, and the people they have been in close contact with up to 2 days before they developed symptoms should be sought out, and those people should also be tested if they show any symptoms of COVID-19.
   WHO also advises that all confirmed cases, even mild cases, should be isolated in health facilities, to prevent transmission and provide adequate care.
   But we recognize that many countries have already exceeded their capacity to care for mild cases in dedicated health facilities.  In that situation, countries should prioritize older patients and those with underlying conditions.
      Chris Martin played a mini-gig at home to kick off #TogetherAtHome, a virtual no-contact concert series that aims to promote physical distancing and taking action for global health, presented by WHO and Global Citizen.  More Solidarity Sessions are being planned to promote health, to show support for people who are staying at home to protect themselves and others from COVID-19, and to encourage donations to the COVID-19 Solidarity Response Fund.

   17 March 2020 -  The World Health Organization today called on member states in the South-East Asia Region to urgently scale-up aggressive measures to combat COVID-19, as confirmed cases cross 480, and the disease claims 8 lives.

   18 March 2020 -   Take real-time training during our current pandemic.   Real-time training during global emergencies is critical for effective preparedness and response.
   The OpenWHO (at OpenWHO.org) Massive Online OPen Courses for COVID-19 provide learning resources for health professionals, decision-makers, and the public.  More than 320,000 people have already enrolled.
   As the pandemic continues to evolve, new resources will be added, additional language versions will continue to be rolled out, and existing courses will be updated to best reflect the changing context.
      Courses include:
 1.  Operational Planning Guidelines to Support Country Preparedness and Response
 2.  Infection Prevention and Control
 3.  Acute Respiratory Infections (ARIs) and basic hygiene measures to protect against infection
 4.  Clinical Care Severe Acute Respiratory Infection
 5.  Emerging Respiratory Viruses, including COVID-19; Methods for detection, prevention, response and control
  

Friday, February 7, 2020

State Caucus or Primary Election?

I came into voting age in the state of Florida, which had always had a state primary election since we moved there in 1961.  I moved back and forth between Florida and Virginia between 1982 and 2004, and I always voted in local, state, and Presidential elections by filling out a ballot.  I moved to Colorado in late 2004, and for the first time in my life had to participate in a Caucus.  I did not like it in any way, shape, or form.  I was yelled at and derided for my opinions. (I admit I was one of 8 people over the age of 25, out of a group of 62 people.  And the younger people were extremely rude. That made me dislike even the idea of attending the next Caucus, but I did.)  The city of Boulder - and Colorado in general - has had a huge influx of population in the past 8 to 10 years.  When I went to Caucus for the 2016 election, even though I arrived 45 minutes before it was scheduled to begin, the venue was already packed to capacity, and there were several hundred people who arrived at their designated caucus place, who could not participate, because we could not get inside the door.  This happened all over the state of Colorado - and a majority of voters complained that their voices were not heard in the caucus.  This year, 2020, we are having the first Primary election in 20 years.  (The caucus system was adopted by the Colorado legislature in a special session called by Governor Shafroth in August 1910, as a part of a package of progressive reforms. It was seen as a way to  limit the power of political party bosses, and to attract more grassroots involvement.  The caucus system was abolished in favor of the Presidential primary in 1992, but was restored in 2002.)  I have been notified by the Boulder County Clerk's Office that my ballot will be mailed to me on 10 February 2020.  I will vote for the candidate of my choice, sign and date the ballot, seal it, and return it to the County Clerk's Office.  Easy-peasy.

   By definition, a caucus is any political group or meeting organized to further a special interest or cause.
   The word caucus originated in Boston, Massachusetts in the early part of the 18th century, when it was used as the name of a political club, the Caucus, or Caucus Club.  The club hosted public discussions and the election of candidates for public office.  In its subsequent and current usage (in the US), the term came to denote a meeting of either party managers, or duty voters, as in "nominating caucus," which nominates candidates for office or selects delegates for a nominating convention. The caucus of a party's members in Congress nominated its candidates for the office of President and Vice President from 1796 until 1824. At the same time, the candidates for Governor and Lieutenant Governor were nominated by the party members of the State Legislatures in what was known as the legislative nominating caucus. Occasionally, districts unrepresented in the legislature sent in delegates to sit in with the members of the legislature when these nominations were made, and this was termed the mixed legislative nominating caucus.
   Here in America, the use  of the term "caucus" denotes a faction within a legislative body that attempts to further its interests by influencing either party policy on proposed legislation or legislative offices; hence such bodies as the Black Caucus (representing African Americans), the Women's Caucus, the Hispanic Caucus, the Freedom Caucus, and the Progressive Caucus, to name a few.
   North Dakota and Wyoming will hold political conventions to decide their Republican candidate; North Dakota will also hold a primary for Democrats, while Wyoming will hold a caucus for the Democrats.
   Those places holding a caucus are: Nevada, American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Marianas, the American Virgin Islands, and Iowa.
   All other states will hold Primary voting for both parties, except the following states who have already decided, without any competition, that Donald Trump will be their Republican nominee: Alaska, Arizona, Hawai'i, Kansas, Nevada, South Carolina, and Virginia.

   Iowa held its caucus Monday night, 3 February, 2020.  Instead of using their old tried and true method, the Democratic party there decided to use a new hand-held application to tabulate the results. The country is still waiting for the final results of the caucus, which is usually announced in the early hours of Tuesday.  Nevada is going to caucus on Saturday, 22 February, and was supposed to use the same app to tally their results.  They announced that they will be using the old method, now.
   The Iowa caucus was never heralded until the 1976 caucus, when Jimmy Carter, to everyone's surprise, was declared the winner.  He went on to win the Democratic nomination that year, and to win the Presidency, as well. Since that time, the media has zeroed in on the Iowa caucus as a true indicator of the country's feelings.  But it has been very wrong in the past, as well....

   My personal feeling is that each state, the District of Columbia, and each territory should have a Primary for the Presidency.  Over-crowding, bad weather, and illness epidemics can, and will, always affect the people who can, and will, show up.  I believe that a Primary system with ballots that arrive by mail, and are returned by mail, or in person, are the best way to vote in this day and age.  Why?  Because caucuses really don't work for any of the above stated reasons, and people who have an illness or handicap or an aversion to crowds might not be able to attend, even though they want to. Therefore, some people will always be disenfranchised from a caucus.
   Voting by computer from home or work is out of the question.  There is too much hacking and stealing of passwords and personal identities.
   Going to a voting center to cast your vote in person can also be problematic.  You're ill; your car breaks down; there's a traffic accident; you don't have transportation to your designated voting place; you're in the hospital; your place of work will not allow you to come in late or leave early to vote (even though it's a federal law that they must); there's a long line ahead of you and the polling place doors are shut before you get inside.  - The list goes on and on.
   That's one  of the reasons I love the current voting system for (now) all elections.  You go into the County Clerk's Office and register once.  You show them your identification with your current address, if your mailing address is different you provide that, you mark which party you wish to be affiliated with (Democrat, Republican, or Other), you sign the form, and you are a registered voter. (If you move, you send your new mailing address to the County Clerk's Office by e-mail.) For each election, you receive your ballot in the mail, you mark it, date it and sign it. Then you can either mail it back, or drop it off at one of many designated locations throughout the city (or county). You receive an e-mail stating they have received your ballot.  Then you receive an e-mail stating that your ballot and vote has been approved and counted.  If there are any problems with your ballot, you receive notification of what the problem is, and how to remedy it.
   I am all for Primary Elections and against a caucus.....


Thursday, February 6, 2020

The Electoral College - Can We & How Do We Remove It?

So... if the Electoral College seems outdated to you (which it does to me), given the reasons the Founding Fathers chose to set it up, and you think it should no longer be used, there is one way to go.  A new Constitutional Amendment.
   We could take a "baby step" and demand that our states use the "proportional division" of Maine and Nebraska, and have the elector from each Congressional district cast their vote for the winner of the popular vote in that specific district. However, that won't work in the long run.  There will still be sections of people, especially if gerrymandering continues to exist throughout the United States, who do not receive the representation in government that they wish. This will change a few votes, but it won't really represent the will of the people.
   A new Constitutional Amendment might take some time to pass into law - unless there is a huge groundswell of voters demanding change. For a new Constitutional Amendment to become law, there must a  two-thirds vote of approval in both sections of Congress - the House of Representatives, and the Senate, or a vote of support by 38 State Legislatures.  This poses special challenges in the case of the Electoral College that affects some states more than others.  Perhaps not as much from smaller states, where the historical record shows are not necessarily against a popular vote. More than likely, the resistance would be from political elites who find it easier to manage a national election in a few states; or from the so-called swing states themselves. - Why would they want to forego the extra monetary and publicity revenue from being targeted, or the extra support from federal programs by the parties, who usually woo the highly valued elected leaders and voters for the next spending spree in another four (or three) years?
   But Article Two of the US Constitution (you know the one, the one that the current President says gives him the right "to do anything I want") provides another route. It is based on the power vested in states to instruct how their Electoral College electors are appointed. Article Two says that each state shall appoint, "in such a manner as the Legislature thereof may direct" the Presidential electors allotted to them.  Therefore, State Legislators are free to select electors to be based upon the outcome of the national popular vote. If enough states whose combined electoral votes add up to 270 or more do so, then the President will effectively be chosen by the popular vote.
    The National Popular Vote organization and its civic allies are pursing this route. It has gained bi-partisan support of constitutional scholars, elected officials and nonpartisan civic organizations. It has passed in Republican- and Democratic-led legislative bodies in 33 legislative chambers in 22 states. To date the legislatures of 11 states representing 165 electoral votes have voted to join what is called the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, an agreement to award all their respective electoral votes to whichever presidential candidate wins the overall popular vote. Inter-state compacts can require Congressional approval. Views differ on whether it applies here. Either way, the leading supporters of the National Popular Vote have made it clear they will seek Congressional approval to forge a national consensus.
It won’t be easy. With two hundred years of inertia and time to build up myths of why the Electoral College even exists, it’s a challenge.
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   Looking back to 1787, an indirect election may have made some sense as a bridge between colony and free nation. But the standard and expectations of democracy in the U.S. have changed. For decades a majority of Americans across state and partisan lines have opposed the Electoral College. The time for change is long overdue. It was flawed then, it is flawed now. Divisive then and divisive now.
   If our founders were with us on election night in 2016 watching CNN’s iconic red and blue map to see 38 of 50 states and two-thirds of the U.S. population left on the sidelines, they might well agree it’s time as well.
   James Madison surely would. The Electoral College was always a compromise for him. John Hamilton possibly would, too.  He mainly wanted to leave the selection of the President to a small august group of appointed “electors” rather than to either Congress, as some then suggested, or to the public. Hamilton’s elite model never happened. Who the electors were, and their qualifications, quickly became irrelevant.
But Thomas Jefferson perhaps said it best.
“…(N)o society can make a perpetual constitution, or even a perpetual law. The earth belongs always to the living generation. They may manage it then, and what proceeds from it, as they please, during their usufruct [time of use]. They are masters too of their own persons, and consequently may govern them as they please. But persons and property make the sum of the objects of government. The constitution and the laws of their predecessors extinguished then in their natural course with those who gave them being. This could preserve that being till it ceased to be itself, and no longer. Every constitution then, and every law, naturally expires at the end of 19 years [each generation]. If it be enforced longer, it is an act of force, and not of right.”
From a letter from Thomas Jefferson to James Madison, 6 Sept. 1789, Papers 15:392—97
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   What can you do to facilitate change?  What can you do to help do away with the Electoral College itself?
     Talk; communicate your feelings regarding a popular vote for the President of the United States.  Speak to friends, family, neighbors, co-workers, members of clubs and associations and the religious group you belong to.  Telephone, write and e-mail your local representatives in government - in your city, county, and state.  Contact your representatives in your State Legislature, and the Governor of your state.  Contact your state Representatives and Senators serving in the United States Congress.
   If enough people rise up (as in the Revolutionary War) against the Electoral College, and make statements that they prefer a popular vote to select the President of the United States, and make this choice plainly known to their duly elected representatives in government, then this choice will be able to succeed.  
   If you do nothing, sit on your hands, and verbally complain about the Electoral College - but do nothing to rectify the situation by contacting your elected officials - then you are a part of America's problem today.  You have become apathetic and are saying, in essence, "I don't like it, but someone else has to stop it."
   
Please contact ALL of your governmental representatives regarding
abolishing
the Electoral College.

It was, and is, flawed and divisive to our country in this day and age.